That’s how swiftly things can change.
2023 was again a tumultuous year in both domestic and international audiovisual markets. A lot happened, yet much remained the same. In January, I attempted to predict the major developments. Now, eleven months later, it's time to review and assess: where were my predictions wrong, and where did they hit the mark?
A bold prediction was that streaming would surpass linear television in terms of market share within this year. It's undeniable that the trend has continued, especially due to the significant growth of AVOD. However, the magical 50% threshold has yet to be reached, not least because public and commercial broadcasters (including the constantly-evolving pay-tv operators) fiercely defend their position in the battle for viewers. A prime example is ESPN retaining the Dutch Eredivisie rights. The transition from linear to streaming is thus slower than I anticipated.
I also foresaw a correction in the production market, expecting streamers to limit their content investments and broadcasters to intervene in their budgets due to the declining advertising market. However, I underestimated the impact: my projection was a 10% correction, but investments decreased much more rapidly over the past eighteen months. As a result, many freelancers in major European countries suddenly find themselves without work, whereas just over a year ago, the market was completely overheated. That’s how swiftly things can change.
Most of the other predictions were reasonably accurate. The projection that AVOD would take off has been proven to be true. Netflix regained its subscriber growth trajectory by fully embracing AVOD. Clearly, the measures taken to limit the illegal sharing of subscriptions played a role, but the availability of a cheaper subscription proved to be decisive. Disney also shifted towards AVOD and achieved success in doing so. Local streaming providers are moving into this same direction, resulting in a sensible mix of SVOD and AVOD. This will accelerate the development of streaming, potentially marking 2024 as the moment streaming surpasses linear TV in terms of market share.
Another prediction was that broadcasters within the streaming domain would concentrate more on their own brands, leading to the demise of joint national platforms. In the UK, ITV launched the new platform ITVX, and competing organizations also increasingly focused on their own brands. Britbox is becoming more of an American platform for British television but hardly plays a significant role in the UK anymore. The impact was even more pronounced in France, with the joint platform Salto being shut down. If NLZIET hadn't clearly positioned itself as a 'cable disruptor' in the Netherlands, it would likely have faced a similar fate.
I also predicted that the consolidation of media companies would be halted. Indeed, major deals didn't occur, and mergers between broadcasters (TF1 and M6 in France and RTL and Talpa in the Netherlands) were prevented by the regulating authorities. These regulators shouldn’t take much pride in this: the reasoning used by the ACM in the Netherlands could also have been written down within six weeks. This made 2023 a media year for many to nót take pride in.
In the 1960s, the United States fell behind in the space race with the Soviet Union. Yuri Gagarin was the first human to break through the Earth's atmosphere, a monumental achievement. Unable to accept this, the United States - through President John F. Kennedy - established the goal of landing the first person on the moon within a timespan of 10 years. The rest is history and the wording of such a distant, grand objective became known as the 'moonshot goal.'
Stating such a goal is even more important when things are a bit difficult. That was the case with Kennedy's example and is the case for many public broadcasters in Europe. The sentiment in politics is generally unfavorable, budget cuts are commonplace, and digital competition is capturing viewership share. Young people are increasingly unable to find public broadcasters, and consequently a significant strategic crisis has emerged. This is the situation in Scandinavia, Germany, the United Kingdom, and in our own country. Let alone the situation in Poland and Spain.
So, there is a crisis in public broadcasting in Europe, precisely at a time when polarization is increasing, and misinformation is rampant. Especially during such times, it is crucial to prioritize neutral reporting and foster a sense of community. Excellent leadership is invaluable in such circumstances. And it's not the first time that the BBC has set an example during such times. Tim Davie, the excellent Director-General of the BBC, spoke at a Royal Television Society event last month. His argument centered around the fact that the future of the United Kingdom is at risk in democratic, social and cultural terms. He saw three roles for the BBC in countering this threat. Pursuing truth with no agenda by reporting fearlessly and fairly. Backing the best British storytelling by investing in homegrown talent and creativity. Lastly, bringing people together by connecting everyone to unmissable content.
That's what you call a moonshot goal! Because what follows from this? The BBC must serve its 'customers' from every platform, at all times. BBC Three will be closed as young people will find BBC content online, via iPlayer. New services are being developed, such as BBC Verify: the future major fact-checker. Interventions will be made in the BBC organization to make all this possible. And finally, the BBC will also explore whether a new, better funding system than the archaic licensing fee can be developed.
Isn't it wonderful? In the United Kingdom, significant changes are being developed from a strategic perspective. In the Netherlands, we only see politically motivated cost-cutting measures within the public broadcaster, neglecting the pursuit of deliberate strategic advancement in the media sector. I rest my case...
Na een loopbaan bij de commerciële (SBS) en publieke (KRO-NCRV) omroep belandde Rijssemus bij producent IDTV, onderdeel van het Britse All3Media dat hem uiteindelijk richting Berlijn dirigeerde om ook de Duitse markt te veroveren. "Dat had ik niet verwacht, moet ik zeggen", aldus Rijssemus lachend. "Ik dacht: ze vragen me voor Amerika, of een bedrijf ergens in de UK misschien."
Wat trof Rijssemus aan en is Duitsland nog steeds 'de heilige graal'? "Je moet de balans vinden: hoeveel energie geeft en kost een baan je?"
Hoe kwam deze student fiscaal recht en economie uiteindelijk in de mediawereld terecht en waarom wilde hij namens RTL zo graag Videoland overnemen? “We hebben daar veel van geleerd en ook heel veel fouten gemaakt, met name een deel infrastructuur totaal nieuw moeten bouwen”, blikt Habets terug. “Toen we 40.000 abonnees hadden, bleek het platform niet meer aan te kunnen…”
Inmiddels opereert hij vanuit München op de Duitse markt en past ook daar zijn ervaring toe met “het omkatten van een televisie- naar een streaming first-bedrijf.” Habets romantiseert zijn internationale carrière niet: “Je moet eerlijk zijn naar jezelf en het doen om de juiste redenen, anders wordt het gewoon een baan.”