Digital TV Research came up with a new sum and predicted that by 2024 1 billion people will use SVOD.
You may wonder at the number in this heading whether it is about John de Mol's latest earn-out or about the shrinking budget of the Dutch public broadcaster. The interesting thing is that it is not about money but about the number of SVOD subscribers worldwide. Before the summer recess, a large number of research agencies will provide the latest data on the growth of the global audiovisual market, including perspectives for the next 5 years. Digital TV Research came up with a new sum and predicted that by 2024 1 billion people will use SVOD. What an incredible growth market!
The researchers made predictions about the number of users per VOD provider and came to the conclusion that Netflix would reach a market share of just under 25%. Amazon would remain a solid second at around 15%, while Disney would grow from 0 to 75 million users and eventually achieve a global market share of 10%. Those figures are backed up by the excellent London-based research firm Ampère, which reported this week that 22% of Americans will subscribe to Disney +. If we subtract China (which is more of a "local" market served by "local" players, who "serve" only "300 million people), there remains a market for over 200 million" other "suppliers. There are of course Americans such as Comcast / Universal and AT & T / Warner with mixed AVOD and SVOD models, but also many local players who serve their own market.
It has been argued so often here: for broadcasters, who generally operate in one country, it is very important to build a significant VOD business. AVOD is usually available in-house, but because it is so important to build a direct relationship with the consumer / viewer, an SVOD operation becomes essential. RTL Nederland realized this early on, the acquisition of Videoland is still etched in our memory and it seems to be heading in the right direction with this proposition. Other good examples are Nine in Australia, which has a very successful service in house with Stan. But otherwise developments are going too slowly.
This is all the more convincing after the analyzes published by PwC in its annual media outlook. The television advertising market is going to crumble and may even shrink worldwide in the coming years. Broadcasters can therefore only achieve growth from new business ventures and VOD is of course the most attractive opportunity. Developing multiple propositions per country will be difficult, because consumers are only willing to take out a few subscriptions and not an infinitely long series. Collaboration is essential and that seems to be difficult to achieve: Britbox of ITV and BBC is struggling to get off the ground, the frustrations among the participants in the French Salto are increasing and NL Ziet in the Netherlands also seems more and more like a stillborn child. .
Pro Sieben Sat1 and Discovery do put in the pass and have already brought ZDF on board. The new Joyn must become the German alternative to Netflix and Amazon. Because there is still plenty of growth in this market segment, this new service will soon gain momentum, while RTL Germany chooses a completely different course and builds its own SVOD service. In short, it is a true spectacle in this large growth market. Different choices are made in each territory and new players emerge. The FANGAs will play their own worldwide game here, but there will be plenty of room left for local players. They have to act in the short term to attract some of those more than 200 million potential users.
Time for your columnist to once again take stock of the predictions he made at the beginning of the year. Post-dictions, if you will. This January, I put myself on the line with four predictions that, as it turns out, weren’t all accurate. Let’s review them.
Prediction 1 was that streamers would intensively engage with sports broadcasting rights, and prices would rise significantly. Along the way, I also suggested that the Formula 1 rights in the Netherlands would end up at RTL or Ziggo. As we now know, these rights remained with the streamer Viaplay, thanks to an ingenious deal in which Viaplay’s Scandinavian operations acted as leverage. Still, streamers have not yet aggressively conquered this market segment. Quality issues with the Italian Serie A and the Tyson vs. Jake Paul fight revealed that for mass events (which sports are), the streaming technology still falls short.
Prediction 2 concerned consolidation in the audiovisual media sector. I predicted that the Warner and Discovery merger would be surpassed. While Paramount was indeed acquired by Skydance and private equity fund Redbird IMI took over All3Media, these deals did not represent consolidation. In fact, it was fairly quiet on the acquisition front. The merger between Discovery and Warner caused so many issues—primarily due to the debt mountain the combined company accumulated—that other media companies chose to wait and see.
Prediction 3 revolved around the use of data in the media industry. I forecasted a significant increase in the use of data in our field. It’s undeniable that data usage will grow, even in programming decisions. The growth of the Dutch company CIA, led by Mark Ramakers and Hans Bouwknegt, shows that acceleration is indeed on the horizon. However, there’s no revolution in sight yet, and developments are progressing more slowly than I anticipated.
The fourth prediction focused on the position of public broadcasters in Europe. I argued that public broadcasters would retain their value and were headed for a bright future. In the Netherlands, the €100 million budget cut wasn’t as severe as expected. The proposed privatization of Channel 4 in the UK was put on hold by the Labour government, and the remarkable digital successes of broadcasters like SVT and NRK in Scandinavia were widely praised. ZDF and ARD in Germany are also in relatively good shape. Good news for public broadcasting!
What’s in store for 2025? First, we’ll find out whether the proposed consolidation in the Netherlands, through RTL’s acquisition by DPG Media, will be brought about. Meanwhile, the growth of streaming will continue unabated. Finally, it will become evident that millennials won’t return to traditional television, sticking instead to social media and streaming video. Broadcast, in its traditional form, will further lose significance, though mass reach will remain as relevant as ever.
And finally: generative AI is going to turn the media industry upside down. Guaranteed!
Meindert schopte het eerst van enquêteur tot directeur bij marktonderzoeksbureau Ipsos. Vervolgens stapte hij over naar de media en was hij in 2008 een van de oprichters van 3Rivers. Vanuit 3Rivers gaf hij talloze adviezen, implementeerde die idealiter ook en deed dit onder andere als ad interim directeur SBS Productions, director van content & productions bij RTL, mediadirecteur van KRO-NCRV en zakelijk directeur van de NTR.
Justine was eerst format-ontwikkelaar en eindredacteur bij producenten als SBS Productions, Eyeworks en IDTV. Vervolgens maakte ze de overstap naar de zender-kant en werd ze directeur bij Net5 en programma-coördinator bij RTL 5. Inmiddels leidt ze SimpelZodiak, het label van Banijay dat specialist is adventure, crime, factual entertainment en reality. Zo maken ze bijvoorbeeld Hunted, De Bauers, Expeditie Robinson, Ik Vertrek én misdaadprogramma’s van Kees van der Spek.
Wat voor structuren, processen en cultuur zijn essentieel om creativiteit te kunnen laten floreren?
Hoe kan je daarvoor juiste veranderingen aanbrengen in je organisatie?
En hoe combineer je creatieve vrijheid met de nodige verantwoordelijkheid en efficiëntie?
Two years ago, I predicted that the MIP fairs in Cannes were doomed. After the COVID crisis, particularly the Americans and Asians struggled to find their way back to Cannes, the bunker-like Palais was half-empty, and the fair had become a depressing affair. The recent MIPCOM couldn’t have been more different: the sun was shining, exchanges with industry peers were intense, and the spirit was fully restored. Half of my earlier prediction proved accurate: the spring MIP has indeed perished. However, MIPCOM is back in full swing and is here to last.
The reason? MIPCOM is increasingly becoming a meeting place for the international media world. It’s no longer a marketplace; instead it is primarily a place to exchange ideas and uncover the latest trends. It was heartwarming to see young producers from the Benelux excelling: Rutger Beckers from Sputnik in Belgium, Jeroen Koopman from Newbe and Wouter van der Pauw from Signal.Stream. Wouter and his partner, Giel de Winter, are succeeding in reaching generations that have turned away from broadcast television. Their rapidly growing company mainly produces for streamers and recently delivered the series Het Jachtseizoen for Videoland. John de Mol often has a nose for this type of talent and was quick to acquire a stake in Signal.
Nevertheless, there was still a bit of complaining from the many producers present, regardless of where they came from. The days of "peak TV" are over: streamers have stopped making heavy marketing investments in content, and the American industry is back on track after the big strikes. This last factor mainly affects British and Australian producers, who had cleverly filled the gap in the U.S. The market has returned to square one and production volumes are back to normal levels. This brings a major advantage: consumers are no longer overwhelmed with excessive content offerings.
Naturally, much was said about the mega-changes taking place in our market. Evan Shapiro, who has made a name as a "media cartographer," offered insight into something we all knew: young people in the 16-34 age group hardly watch broadcast television anymore. This percentage has dropped further, from nearly 20% in the UK in 2022 to 14% in 2024. Social video and streaming continue to grow, and advertisers are naturally following suit. Broadcasters will have to develop their streaming activities as quickly as possible to maximize digital reach.
In this perfect storm, it’s also crucial for producers to embrace new opportunities. Young entrepreneurs like Wouter van der Pauw, Rutger Beckers, and Jeroen Koopman are eager to take advantage of these opportunities. It will be interesting to see if the large, consolidated production companies will also be able to crack the code of young viewers. That’s the challenge facing many of the MIPCOM attendees.