Most FANGAs have rapidly seized power in the media world, mainly through their breakthrough technology and focus on consumer desires.
Broadcast Magazine has been around for 30 years. In the still young media industry, the magazine is a survivor, because several revolutions have taken place during this period. Time for a look back.
Commercial TV changed fundamentally in the years that this magazine was founded. In the United States, the triopoly of CBS, NBC and ABC was broken. These companies had built up unprecedented market power in the 1970s and 1980s and ruled the media. This kingdom suddenly collapsed phenomenally, not least because of the arrogance of the networks themselves. The book Three blind mice described this development clearly and should still be mandatory for today's broadcasters. At the same time, commercial TV broke through in Europe, with American managers such as Harry Sloan (the founder of SBS) playing an important role in addition to new European media companies. The first revolution, set in the 1990s when the world economy developed phenomenally, was dominated by commercial TV.
The first decade of this century marked the breakthrough of large-scale TV production. Endemol reached its current (!) Size, Fremantle emerged from the womb of Pearson and CLT-UFA and a number of ITV executives founded All3 Media. It was the second great revolution, the emergence of the Superindies. Every self-respecting media company has now set up its own studio and we live in a world where television production has taken off unprecedented.
The first major transition took place in adjacent markets in these years. Publishers saw their position weaken and the music industry underwent a fundamental change. This first form of disruption had enormous consequences for these sectors, but television continued to develop relatively slowly. Until large numbers of governments started to wonder (after the great financial crisis at the end of the first decade) why people invested so much in public broadcasting. Budgets were cut almost everywhere in Europe and with the exception of a single southern European country (such as Greece, where the existing public broadcaster ERT was even discontinued, there is now a successor), the Netherlands was even a leader in cutbacks. It was the third revolution, the fundamentally different, suspicious view of public broadcasting in Europe.
However, all these revolutions are dwarfed by the massive disruption that is taking place at the moment, the digital media revolution. It all started (as it often does) in the US and reached Europe via Scandinavia. The emergence of new digital players, both in the field of social media and online video, has had an unimaginable impact. Most FANGAs have rapidly seized power in the media world, mainly through their breakthrough technology and focus on consumer desires. Traditional media outlets are trying to fend off these new developments and perhaps, contrary to what happened in the music industry, are doing the right thing. They are adopting a new digital strategy and increasing their scale through massive transactions. Examples abound in the last 2 years: the takeover of Time Warner by AT&T, of Sky by Comcast, of Scripps by Discovery and the merger between CBS and Viacom this summer. These companies are now also targeting consumers directly, with Disney impressing most with a range of SVOD initiatives, from Disney + to Hulu and ESPN.
Four major revolutions in 30 years, no wonder it is so interesting to work in the media. I am curious about the outcome of the latest revolution (which according to colleague Mark Ramakers will result in world domination of only a few companies) and I am eagerly looking forward to the fifth… ..
Time for your columnist to once again take stock of the predictions he made at the beginning of the year. Post-dictions, if you will. This January, I put myself on the line with four predictions that, as it turns out, weren’t all accurate. Let’s review them.
Prediction 1 was that streamers would intensively engage with sports broadcasting rights, and prices would rise significantly. Along the way, I also suggested that the Formula 1 rights in the Netherlands would end up at RTL or Ziggo. As we now know, these rights remained with the streamer Viaplay, thanks to an ingenious deal in which Viaplay’s Scandinavian operations acted as leverage. Still, streamers have not yet aggressively conquered this market segment. Quality issues with the Italian Serie A and the Tyson vs. Jake Paul fight revealed that for mass events (which sports are), the streaming technology still falls short.
Prediction 2 concerned consolidation in the audiovisual media sector. I predicted that the Warner and Discovery merger would be surpassed. While Paramount was indeed acquired by Skydance and private equity fund Redbird IMI took over All3Media, these deals did not represent consolidation. In fact, it was fairly quiet on the acquisition front. The merger between Discovery and Warner caused so many issues—primarily due to the debt mountain the combined company accumulated—that other media companies chose to wait and see.
Prediction 3 revolved around the use of data in the media industry. I forecasted a significant increase in the use of data in our field. It’s undeniable that data usage will grow, even in programming decisions. The growth of the Dutch company CIA, led by Mark Ramakers and Hans Bouwknegt, shows that acceleration is indeed on the horizon. However, there’s no revolution in sight yet, and developments are progressing more slowly than I anticipated.
The fourth prediction focused on the position of public broadcasters in Europe. I argued that public broadcasters would retain their value and were headed for a bright future. In the Netherlands, the €100 million budget cut wasn’t as severe as expected. The proposed privatization of Channel 4 in the UK was put on hold by the Labour government, and the remarkable digital successes of broadcasters like SVT and NRK in Scandinavia were widely praised. ZDF and ARD in Germany are also in relatively good shape. Good news for public broadcasting!
What’s in store for 2025? First, we’ll find out whether the proposed consolidation in the Netherlands, through RTL’s acquisition by DPG Media, will be brought about. Meanwhile, the growth of streaming will continue unabated. Finally, it will become evident that millennials won’t return to traditional television, sticking instead to social media and streaming video. Broadcast, in its traditional form, will further lose significance, though mass reach will remain as relevant as ever.
And finally: generative AI is going to turn the media industry upside down. Guaranteed!
Meindert schopte het eerst van enquêteur tot directeur bij marktonderzoeksbureau Ipsos. Vervolgens stapte hij over naar de media en was hij in 2008 een van de oprichters van 3Rivers. Vanuit 3Rivers gaf hij talloze adviezen, implementeerde die idealiter ook en deed dit onder andere als ad interim directeur SBS Productions, director van content & productions bij RTL, mediadirecteur van KRO-NCRV en zakelijk directeur van de NTR.
Justine was eerst format-ontwikkelaar en eindredacteur bij producenten als SBS Productions, Eyeworks en IDTV. Vervolgens maakte ze de overstap naar de zender-kant en werd ze directeur bij Net5 en programma-coördinator bij RTL 5. Inmiddels leidt ze SimpelZodiak, het label van Banijay dat specialist is adventure, crime, factual entertainment en reality. Zo maken ze bijvoorbeeld Hunted, De Bauers, Expeditie Robinson, Ik Vertrek én misdaadprogramma’s van Kees van der Spek.
Wat voor structuren, processen en cultuur zijn essentieel om creativiteit te kunnen laten floreren?
Hoe kan je daarvoor juiste veranderingen aanbrengen in je organisatie?
En hoe combineer je creatieve vrijheid met de nodige verantwoordelijkheid en efficiëntie?
Two years ago, I predicted that the MIP fairs in Cannes were doomed. After the COVID crisis, particularly the Americans and Asians struggled to find their way back to Cannes, the bunker-like Palais was half-empty, and the fair had become a depressing affair. The recent MIPCOM couldn’t have been more different: the sun was shining, exchanges with industry peers were intense, and the spirit was fully restored. Half of my earlier prediction proved accurate: the spring MIP has indeed perished. However, MIPCOM is back in full swing and is here to last.
The reason? MIPCOM is increasingly becoming a meeting place for the international media world. It’s no longer a marketplace; instead it is primarily a place to exchange ideas and uncover the latest trends. It was heartwarming to see young producers from the Benelux excelling: Rutger Beckers from Sputnik in Belgium, Jeroen Koopman from Newbe and Wouter van der Pauw from Signal.Stream. Wouter and his partner, Giel de Winter, are succeeding in reaching generations that have turned away from broadcast television. Their rapidly growing company mainly produces for streamers and recently delivered the series Het Jachtseizoen for Videoland. John de Mol often has a nose for this type of talent and was quick to acquire a stake in Signal.
Nevertheless, there was still a bit of complaining from the many producers present, regardless of where they came from. The days of "peak TV" are over: streamers have stopped making heavy marketing investments in content, and the American industry is back on track after the big strikes. This last factor mainly affects British and Australian producers, who had cleverly filled the gap in the U.S. The market has returned to square one and production volumes are back to normal levels. This brings a major advantage: consumers are no longer overwhelmed with excessive content offerings.
Naturally, much was said about the mega-changes taking place in our market. Evan Shapiro, who has made a name as a "media cartographer," offered insight into something we all knew: young people in the 16-34 age group hardly watch broadcast television anymore. This percentage has dropped further, from nearly 20% in the UK in 2022 to 14% in 2024. Social video and streaming continue to grow, and advertisers are naturally following suit. Broadcasters will have to develop their streaming activities as quickly as possible to maximize digital reach.
In this perfect storm, it’s also crucial for producers to embrace new opportunities. Young entrepreneurs like Wouter van der Pauw, Rutger Beckers, and Jeroen Koopman are eager to take advantage of these opportunities. It will be interesting to see if the large, consolidated production companies will also be able to crack the code of young viewers. That’s the challenge facing many of the MIPCOM attendees.