The solutions are there: now let’s see who can put this in practice!
One of the biggest threats to media organizations is the churn rate, the extent to which consumers end their relationship with a media company. For years, the term was only used in pay-TV, but lately it can be seen in a much broader context. It is the silent killer behind the performance of media companies: after all, everyone likes to report a growing customer base and then churn is the big enemy.
A special form of churn is the decreasing viewing time of linear television. We know of course that viewing time of the traditional consumer is decreasing, a deadly development for 'ordinary' linear television. The biggest danger is that there are also few new viewers, because young people turn away from television. The rinsing is getting thinner and thinner. Broadcasters therefore started developing on-demand initiatives a long time ago. But for the time being, commercial broadcasters are still enjoying the enormous recovery of the advertising market. And as it goes, that reduces the urgency to change quickly.
Distribution companies must deal with churn too. They give this phenomenon the name cord cutting: the extent to which consumers watch media 'over-the-top' and refrain from cable subscriptions. This phenomenon is particularly noticeable in the United States, but it is also beginning to gain foothold in Europe. Because young people tend to turn to over-the-top, churn in the distribution world is starting to hurt. However, the operating margins of cable companies are so enormous that they continue to yield good returns in the short term, and here too this means that there is no need for major change in the short term.
In the VOD markets, churn is obviously the biggest threat. After all, the business model is often based on subscriptions, similar to the model of pay-TV. With the increase in the number of providers, churn is becoming an increasing risk. Acquiring new customers is a costly affair, which is why retaining existing customers is of vital importance. Netflix and Disney seem to be succeeding quite well in retaining customers, but it is questionable whether other providers will also succeed. With some new VOD platforms, the number of new customers is disappointing: the first hairline cracks are already noticeable at providers such as French Salto, German Joyn and Flemish Streamz. The shareholders of the first two companies are already openly doubting whether they should not get out now.
What media companies should do above all is increase the stickyness of their products: captivate customers so much that they do not think about running away. For broadcasters, this is possible through live events, blockbusters, urgent programming, with distribution companies through excellent service and high bandwidths and with VOD providers through exclusive programming, an intuitive and personal viewing experience and sophisticated marketing. The solutions are there: now let’s see who can put this in practice!
Sports rights holders are rubbing their hands in anticipation, because the value of sports rights is rising sharply. After the huge price hikes of the previous decade, there had been somewhat of a stagnation in recent years. The French Ligue 1 even saw the value of its new multi-year deal drop. But now, a new group of deep-pocketed interested parties has emerged: the streamers are about to make major investments in sports. Specialized sports streamers like DAZN have been active for several years. Market leader Netflix, after broadcasting the Paul/Tyson match, has also discovered the power of live sports. YouTube (more on that in my next column) invested in American football earlier. According to figures from Ampère Analysis, streamers will spend over 12 billion dollars on sports rights this year.
The investments that British-Ukrainian entrepreneur Sir Lech Blavatnik has been making for years are starting to bear some fruit. His company DAZN is growing rapidly and attracting one investor after another. The company is running at a significant loss and has a massive need for financing. This month, according to insiders, the Saudi Arabian Public Investment Fund paid a billion dollars for less than 10% of the company. With the promise that he’s building the Netflix of sports, Blavatnik has managed to convince investors. As a result, the company has become a tough competitor to pay-TV channels like Sky and is squeezing many public and commercial TV broadcasters even further.
Entertainment streamers, meanwhile, also see the value of sports—and not just for attracting new subscribers. Keeping churn (the cancellation of subscriptions) under control is at least as important from a strategic standpoint. Therefore, Netflix is going to invest in American football. Less dominant players like Peacock and Paramount+ are also heading in that direction—a development that has the National Football League (NFL) rubbing its hands in anticipation. We also know that trends in the U.S. sooner or later make their way to Europe, which will undoubtedly mean that here, too, the value of sports rights will shoot through the roof.
It’s clear, however, that this hasn’t been all smooth sailing. DAZN incurred the wrath of German consumer organizations by hiking its prices for the Bundesliga and the Champions League a little too enthusiastically. Technical problems in Italy plagued the sports streamer, and even Netflix underestimated the impact of a mega-event like the Paul/Tyson match. Those are temporary problems, though—ones that will disappear as streaming technology advances and industry expertise continues to evolve.
Private equity firms see these developments as well and are becoming more and more interested in sports organizations. And here again, the NFL is at the center of attention. After an extensive study, the league concluded that private equity firms (at least to a limited extent, for now) can invest in NFL clubs. Sports are increasingly being valued for what they’re truly worth, because there’s still so much potential in them—due in no small part to streamers taking an interest in the rights. In other words: sports are streaming ahead!
Oege Boonstra begon in de media als commercieel directeur bij facilitair bedrijf NOB en werd later onder andere directeur van de internationale operaties bij Endemol. In 2008 was hij een van de twee oprichters van 3Rivers, waar hij recent is teruggetreden uit de dagelijkse bedrijfsvoering om 3Rivers met raad en daad te blijven bijstaan als non-executive chairman.
Ronald Goes studeerde eerst economie en accountancy. Daarna was hij onder andere CEO bij RTL Productions, betrokken bij de opzet van SBS en meer dan vijf andere tv-zenders in Nederland en bestuurder bij Endemol en Talpa Media. Momenteel leidt hij al meer dan vijftien jaar, vanuit Londen, de wereldwijde productietak van Warner Bros.
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De antwoorden hoor je in de Joost Mag Het Weten podcast
In recent years, money seemed to be endless in the media world. The advertising markets were booming after the COVID crisis, funding for public broadcasting remained largely untouched, and the marketing machines of new video streaming platforms worked overtime. Investments in content were skyrocketing, there was insufficient staff to complete all productions, and the sky seemed to be the limit.
How different things are now. Market leader Netflix, for example, has reduced content investments by a third. Advertising markets have also come under pressure, particularly in Germany. Finally, politics has again started to interfere with broadcasting contributions: in the Netherlands, the budget for public broadcasting was cut by €150 million, and other countries are also pausing to reassess.
It is therefore unsurprising that all media organizations have started to watch their spending. Some have even implemented drastic budget cuts. A good example is Warner Bros. Discovery, where one initiative after another has been announced to achieve billions in savings. The cause is the enormous debt burden the company carries. It must be said that this policy is paying off: the debt has been reduced by a third in three years. A remarkable achievement. It’s hardly surprising that financial engineering played a key role in this process. However, the fact that it is done so openly is. One example: a film like Batgirl, which was already in post-production, was completely written off. The costs were booked "below the line," meaning they did not appear in the profit figures. The reason: the series was considered "non-core business." This kind of accounting trick is being adopted by more media companies.
Another interesting aspect is the funding of public broadcasters. In the Netherlands, under the leadership of the then-almighty Harry Kramer, the broadcasting fee was incorporated into general taxation around the turn of the millennium. It was deemed that the fee was outdated, so it was abolished, and public broadcasting was then funded from general government funds. This had significant disadvantages for public broadcasting: politics could now directly interfere with its financing. The result is well-known: public broadcasting has been facing significant cuts in recent years.
In the United Kingdom, they still use the old system of a television and radio license fee. Everyone who owns a TV must pay £169,50 annually. Many Brits are questioning why this mandatory fee still exists in an era of video services paid for directly. Interestingly, it is considered a legal offence to not pay the license fee. It’s no surprise that it’s now up to creative financial minds. It will be interesting to see what emerges from this: even a tax on broadband connectivity is being considered. A system that Spain recently dismantled. Financial engineering of hand has become the norm in both the public and commercial media domains...